More Asinine Predictions!

My predictions so far this year have been laugh out loud wrong. Rams going to the NFC Championship? Chargers winning the Super Bowl? The Vikings 8-8? Yeah, no. Naturally, that means I should do more useless non-forecasting...

Prediction #1 - Bengals Make The AFC Title Game

Every year there's a team that's not nearly as good as their record reflects because of an easy schedule. That was the Bears last year, and the Bengals are shaping up to fit that mold in 2011. Here's who they've beaten so far: Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indy, Seattle, Tennessee.

Their schedule does get a lot tougher from there: Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore twice, and Houston. But they also have Cleveland, St. Louis and Arizona, three very winnable games. So all they have to do is go 1-3 against Pitt/Balt and they're a 10 game winner. Here's the thing though...

The Bengals really aren't that bad. They remind me of the Jets the past couple years: young but competent QB (giving too much credit to The Sanchize here, I'd rather have Dalton), a top 5 defense against the run, a shut down corner (Leon Hall), some receivers who can do some things, and a competent running game. There's not much flash with the Bengals. They're all meat and potatoes. I'd argue the AFC is as wide open as its ever been since the Raiders made the Super Bowl in 2002, and a meat-and-potatoes team is good enough to get it done this year.

Look at the rest of the AFC this year. San Diego's offense blows and their defense isn't good enough to bail them out. Oakland is the most penalized team in the league (again) and their quarterback just came off the street two weeks ago. New England's defense can't stop anyone. The Jets make too many huge mistakes. Houston is soft and their defense may be a mirage considering they've barely had to play from behind at all this year. Baltimore still has Joe Flacco. I would not be surprised to see a Pittsburgh/Cincy AFC title game.

Prediction #2 - Bears Make The NFC Title Game, Again

Again, this is more of a statement on the rest of the NFC than it is an endorsement of the Bears. The East is awash in mediocrity (don't sell me the Giants, too many injuries). The Saints are your classic "good at home, lousy on the road" team. Atlanta's defense is not good - Chicago already kicked their ass this year 30-12. The only other serious teams out there are Green Bay obviously, and San Francisco, who are a complete wildcard thanks to Alex Smith and the offense. I'm going with the more experienced team and banking on a NFC Championship rematch. And maybe another appearance from Caleb Haine, just for comedy's sake.

Prediction #3 - Lions, Eagles Miss The Playoffs

Detroit looks to me like a classic case of a team that peaked too early. They looked great against the Bears in a playoff atmosphere at home on a Monday night, but the next two games against San Fran and Atlanta were lardass ugly. Granted they did just destroy Denver 45-10 as they were supposed to, but I think that's their destiny - beat bad teams, lose to good teams.

As for the Eagles, what more can you say about those frauds at this point? Name a linebacker on that team. I watch an obscene amount of football (and play an absurd number of trivia quizzes on sporcle.com) and I have no idea who any defenders are beyond Trent Cole, Cullen Jenkins and their "rock star" defensive backs, who have all looked like a bucket of horseass so far. Their offense has to be clicking 100% every game for them to have a chance, and so far that's only happened a handful of times.

Prediction #4 - Vikings Beat Packe--Nope, can't do it. I'll only go this far...

Prediction #4 - Vikings Cover -14.5 Spread At Lambeau

Final score - Packers 41, Vikings 31

Christian Ponder On Third Down

In the interest of continuity, I want to continue the third down stat analysis I had going with Donovan McNabb to see if there would be some marked improvement from Christian Ponder. Yeah I know it's only two games, but I can't help myself.

Note:  This is only counting his two starts, not garbage time against the Bears.

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vs. Green Bay

3-7-GB44    (4:25) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass incomplete short right to L.Booker.

3-4-MIN11    (:35) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass incomplete short right to P.Harvin (C.Woodson).

3-3-GB32    (13:43) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short left to P.Harvin ran ob at GB 26 for 6 yards.

3-6-MIN24    (4:12) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short left to V.Shiancoe to MIN 33 for 9 yards (D.Bishop).

3-8-MIN35    (2:20) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short right to P.Harvin to MIN 44 for 9 yards (T.Williams).

3-12-GB34    (1:04) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass incomplete short right to D.Aromashodu.

3-5-MIN25    (13:27) (Shotgun) C.Ponder sacked at MIN 25 for 0 yards (B.Raji).

3-4-MIN40    (8:07) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short right intended for V.Shiancoe INTERCEPTED by C.Woodson at MIN 46. C.Woodson to MIN 45 for 1 yard.

3-12-GB28    (13:59) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass incomplete deep right to M.Jenkins.

3-6-MIN11    (11:20) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short left to V.Shiancoe to MIN 33 for 22 yards (M.Burnett).

3-13-MIN45   
(8:23) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short middle to G.Camarillo to GB 39 for 16 yards (D.Bishop). PENALTY on GB-C.Matthews, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at GB 39.

3-7-MIN5    (4:49) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short right to V.Shiancoe to MIN 17 for 12 yards (E.Walden).

3-10-MIN36    (2:42) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass incomplete deep left to V.Shiancoe.

6 first downs on 13 attempts. 6 completions on 12 pass attempts for 74 yards, 1 INT, 1 sack. 10 short passes, 2 deep.

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at Carolina

1st quarter, 3-10-CAR27(14:09) (Shotgun) C.Ponder sacked at CAR 27 for 0 yards (T.McClain).

1st quarter, 3-15-MIN6    (5:58) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short middle to A.Peterson to MIN 28 for 22 yards (J.Anderson, S.Martin). Shuttle pass

1st quarter, 3-8-MIN43    (3:26) (Shotgun) C.Ponder sacked at MIN 42 for -1 yards (C.Munnerlyn).

2nd quarter, 3-8-MIN22   
(12:33) (Shotgun) C.Ponder scrambles right tackle to MIN 27 for 5 yards (G.Hardy). PENALTY on MIN-P.Harvin, Personal Foul, 13 yards, enforced between downs. (Penalty came after the play.)

2nd quarter, 3-9-MIN 21 *** play under review ***  (Not listed officially on the play-by-play for some reason, but this was a 12 yard completion to Shiancoe for a first down.)

2nd quarter, 3-6-CAR39    (7:24) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short left to K.Rudolph to CAR 26 for 13 yards (C.Godfrey).

2nd quarter, 3-11-CAR17(4:47) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short middle to P.Harvin to CAR 5 for 12 yards (C.Munnerlyn). FUMBLES (C.Munnerlyn), RECOVERED by CAR-C.Munnerlyn at CAR 5. C.Munnerlyn to CAR 5 for no gain (P.Harvin). Minnesota challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 04:37.)

3rd quarter, 3-13-MIN17(9:56) C.Ponder pass short left to D.Aromashodu to MIN 22 for 5 yards (R.Stanford; C.Munnerlyn).

3rd quarter, 3-10-CAR42(4:29) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short middle to V.Shiancoe to CAR 30 for 12 yards (O.Gaither).

4th quarter, 3-10-MIN26(14:36) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short left to V.Shiancoe to MIN 39 for 13 yards (C.Godfrey, J.Anderson).

4th quarter, 3-11-CAR48(11:38) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass incomplete short left to K.Rudolph.

4th quarter, 3-7-MIN18(8:42) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short right to P.Harvin to MIN 29 for 11 yards (O.Gaither).

4th quarter, 3-5-CAR16(3:04) (Shotgun) C.Ponder pass short middle to A.Peterson to CAR 13 for 3 yards (C.Godfrey). shuttle pass

7 first downs on 13 attempts. 9 completions on 10 pass attempts for 108 yards, 2 sacks, 1 run for 5 yards.

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COMBINED TOTALS THROUGH 2 GAMES:
13 first downs on 26 attempts (50%). 15 completions on 22 pass attempts for 182 yards (8.2 yards-per-attempt), 1 INT, 3 sacks. 1 scramble for 5 yards, 0 fumbles.

Here's McNabb's again for comparison, through 6 games:
18 first downs on 60 attempts (30%, bottom 5 in the NFL), 21 completions on 49 attempts (42.8%) for 194 yards (4.0 yards-per-attempt), 4 scrambles for 35 yards (1 rushing TD), 2 TDs, 1 INT, 0 fumbles, 6 sacks.

So yeah, I'd call a 20% jump an improvement, to say the least. And a 100% improvement on the yards-per-attempt is nice. Hard to do worse than 4 YPA but still. Some things worth noting however...

- The Vikings seem intent on creating as many third-and-longs as possible. It's really strange. It hasn't bothered Ponder though, as most of his 3rd down completions are to receivers that are at or beyond the sticks.

- Notice the yardage lost on Ponder's 3 sacks: 0 yards, 0 yards, -1 yard.

- Am I crazy or has the pass protection been a lot better the past two games? Is it Joe Berger playing for Anthony Herrera? Is it Ponder's mobility? Or is the Packers/Panthers pass rush that uninspiring?

- Speaking of which, yes I'm fully aware that A) the Packers defense isn't that great, and B) the Panthers defense is even worse, as if their statistical incompetency served only to make Ponder look better than he really is. This point always irritates me, because if those defenses are indeed not that good, isn't Ponder SUPPOSED to do well? And he did. So what's the problem?

- Again, only a two game sample, but it's beginning to look like Ponder may never be a high completion percentage guy. He's not a dump-off machine like Joe Flacco or Mark Sanchez. Yes, there will probably be some short passes by design to Peterson and Harvin since they're the only guys on the offense that can make people miss (we saw a couple shuttle passes to Peterson, for example) but other than that, Ponder is going to throw beyond the sticks.

- The only throw that I'd describe as McNabbian was the totally hopeless 5 yard dumpoff to Aromashodu on 3rd and 13. Throws like that seem to be the exception and not the rule, thankfully.