No Expectations

I apologize to all zero of my readers for being a day late. I mean that in a way to say that I have zero readers, not that I don't actually apologize, not that it matters either way. I'm sure I would apologize if I had readers expecting something, or if I had a self-imposed deadline of some kind instead of getting recklessly drunk Sunday night and being hideously hung over all day Monday. I'm sure Tom Powers does that all the time.

Minnesota 34, Dallas 3 was both expected and unexpected. The buildup to the game was strange. Against all odds, the Dallas hype began to outweigh the Viking cynicism. I did not buy Dallas as a contender for one second - beating the Saints at the Superdome was impressive, I'll give them that, but the Saints had been getting so many breaks while other teams kept blowing games for them (Miami, Washington) that they were way overdue to get what was coming to them. (Yes, that's the kind of hardcore statistical analyziationisms you get here at TWFP.)

The Cowboys also beat Philly twice in a row to help fuel the media machine. Dallas just has their number - playing a division rival twice a year, let alone three times in one year, it tends to happen. They know exactly what to do to beat Philly. And as I expected, they had no idea what the hell to do to win in the Metrodome.

Still, I was really, really nervous. I felt the Vikings should have beat Dallas soundly, and I was apparently the only one who thought so. The Vikes are really, really good at home. Nobody seemed to notice or care. The "they haven't played anyone good at home all year" argument isn't as strong when you consider that they were killing teams - their average margin of victory at home was 17.

So the Vikings winning by 31 wasn't really surprising to me, except it was, because things never happen like they're supposed to with this team. If that makes sense.

That brings us to the third Vikings NFC title experience in 11 years. I emphasize "experience" because these events were not mere games. As everyone knows, in '98, we were the big unstoppable favorites, on the wrong-end of a crushing upset. In 2000, we backed into a bye, caught a huge break with New Orleans beating St. Louis, and promptly (predictably, from my perspective) got destroyed.

This team is not as good as the '98 squad (if anything, they're playing the '98 squad this week) but they're definitely better than the 2000 team. Vikings fans are approaching this game like a haggard, old, drunk sailor who's seen the worst the sea has to offer, and has been asked to set sail one more time. "Screw it, I've taken her worst shot, what's one more voyage?" Next week can't possibly be as bad as those two games. So we've got that going for us.

So with that, I say... (gulp) I really feel like the Vikings have a shot. Dallas provided the template on how to beat the Saints at home, so it can be done. There are a lot of ifs - If Favre doesn't turn it over, if Peterson still commands the defense's respect, if the safeties don't get burnt to a crisp on big plays, if they kick away from Reggie Bush, etc. All of those things are feasible. I wouldn't put money on them, but they are feasible. It can happen.

My one major concern is the defensive line repeating their performance. As I've written about before, the Metrodome is a HUGE help when it comes to the Vikings pass-rush. Do not expect the same thing to happen again in New Orleans. The Dome noise forces a telegraphed snap count - they'll still be on turf, but they won't have the noise advantage. I keep telling myself the Saints putting up 45 last week against Arizona is not that impressive considering Green Bay did the exact same thing the week before, but still... they can throw up 21 points quicker than you can say, "What is Brad Childress DOING??"

It makes no sense but I'm less nervous for this Saints game than I am for the Dallas game. I knew they could beat Dallas, but I didn't have a lot of confidence in it actually happening. They're bigtime underdogs in New Orleans. Everyone's riding the Saints. Everyone hates Favre. Good, that's a load off my mind.

I don't have any expectations - I think the key here is to forget that the Super Bowl is only one win away. No SB thoughts under any circumstances.

So if you see anyone beating themselves mercilessly in the face with their own shoe, pay them no mind - they're only wondering, "Wouldn't it be great if..."

Altering the Scheme

The beginning of the Childress' Era held strong to one philosophy - run the ball, stop the run. In other words, do what the Jets and Bengals are doing this year. It's a very old school way of thinking, one TV analysts have been harping for as long as football has been on television. But here's the thing - it doesn't work. It doesn't win Super Bowls. Not anymore.

Last year the Vikings we're the #2 rushing offense and #1 against the run. What did this amount to? An unspectacular team that scared no one, and a first round exit. The Jets are the #1 rushing offense and are #4 against the run. The Bengals are the #4 rushing offense and the #6 rushing defense, their strengths. What will this amount to? They're both totally unspectactular, both from a scheme and personnel standpoint. Cincinnati is considered by many to be dead in the water while the Jets are a Curtis Painter appearance from being on the outside looking in.

I emphasize "unspectacular". You know what you're getting from a talent standpoint, it's all very straightforward. The onus is on the coaching and the scheme. So why doesn't it work? Because guys like Brett Favre, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice and Adrian Peterson have shown that you can't prepare for guys that are capable of anything. The NFL is changing into more of a Madden video game league. You need at least a couple guys who are capable of scoring from anywhere on the field.

Everyone's heard the stories of guys like Jon Gruden who work 20 hour days, sleep in their office, using every available moment to somehow gain an edge on the other team. Everyone's heard about how Bill Belichick was the son of a scout, a football lifer that was raised on breaking down film. Coaches were becoming the show. They were becoming rock stars - even offensive coordinators were known just as well as head coaches.

Belichick's skills in particular were unique and a decided advantage. All "cheating" aside (I'm in the "name one coach who wasn't trying to get away with as much as he could" camp), the guy put together plans stopping the most high powered offenses and ripping the most fearsome defenses. He's got three rings, a fourth SB appearance and a fifth AFC title game appearance. The players on the field almost didn't matter - wideout Troy Brown was a defensive back for much of one season, for chrissakes. That kind of stuff was unheard of. He set a standard nobody else could follow.

The old saying is that the NFL is a copycat league. Everyone dutifully followed Belichick's lead and built empires centered around mind-squeezing control and week-to-week gameplans, as opposed to an overall philosophy. Long gone were the days of the playground style, call-it-as-I-see-it football. Guys like Peyton Manning and Brett Favre were considered throwbacks. Calling their own plays on the field? How absurd. You're messing up the coach's insanely intricate and detailed gameplan! That's what he spent 120 hours preparing for this week!

I've been over this before - this is why Childress was scared shitless of bringing in Jeff Garcia this past summer. So why bring in Favre? Well, obviously, with everyone harping on the "missing piece" your entire tenure, and having a HOF QB available, (and considering you get the credit for bringing him aboard), it's hard to turn that down. But I guarantee you, if Childress had his druthers, Tarvaris Jackson would still be back there, subserviently carrying out his orders.

This all leads to one major reason why Favre has been so successful this late in his career. How can you prepare for a guy who improvises so much? Even if you get him on film, he still has an unpredictable element that's difficult to prepare for. He's a coach's worst nightmare, both playing against and playing for.

My point is this - what's become the best way to attack against an over-prepared opponent? Once Belichick set the standard for coaching and how to prepare, what's the answer? Unpredictability. Explosiveness. Guys like Favre, DeSean Jackson, Chris Johnson, Deangelo Williams, Calvin Johnson (when healthy), Joshua Cribbs, on and on... more and more players of this nature are blowing up gameplans left and right. They're capable of anything on the field. There's just no preparing for that. Like Dan Patrick says, "You can only hope to contain them."

This past Sunday was again the Brett Favre Show Starring Brett Favre, and at the behest of Childress (not a stretch if I had to guess), his unpredictable style put up 61 points in a 60 minute stretch dating back to the Chicago game. There was a fantastic example of this when Favre changed the play at the line, pump faked twice on immediate routes, and went deep to Sidney Rice for 50 yards.

If Childress has a brain (a stretch if I had to guess), he's gotta stick with Favre calling it as he sees it on the field.